On a Temporal Investigation of Hurricane Strength and Frequency

Hurricanes originating in the West Atlantic often have devastating consequences on the cities in the US east coast, both monetary and otherwise, and hence pose a source of considerable concern to several authorities. The possibility of a connection between global warming in general and an increased frequency of these strong hurricanes is well researched, but is still actively debated. The present work tries to promote the use of a smoothing statistic termed empirical recurrence rates and to advocate the use of another, termed empirical recurrence rates ratio in a bid to better understand the rich history of these storms on one hand and to make appropriate inferences on the other, so that some light can be shed on the acceptability of conjectures held by renowned climate scientists. The methods introduced are intuitive and simple to implement and should find wide applications in diverse disciplines.

     

Analysis of Pesticides Using a Polyppyrole Modified Electrode

Electrochemical methods can provide fast, sensitive and sometimes real time detection of pesticides. In the course of this work, a dispersed mercury electrode has been used to detect pesticides electrochemically. The electrode was prepared by depositing a thin mercury film on a glassy carbon disc and then coating a layer of polypyrrole on the disc. The effect of coating thickness on detection sensitivity was studied. A thin mercury film of 0.34 µm dispersed by one cycle polymerization of pyrrole was preferred. The influence of electrolyte, pH and organic solvent content on pesticide response was also investigated. The polypyrrole dispersed mercury electrode (Hg-PPy/GC) was not suitable for a pH above 6 but it can tolerate acetonitrile up to 10% at which concentration the mercury film coated glassy carbon electrode (Hg/GC) failed to response. Methyl parathion, methyl azinphos, parathion and fenitrothion were detected. The sensitivity of the dispersed mercury electrode was similar to a normal thin mercury film electrode in this case. A good response can be obtained for 1 ppm pesticides using fast linear sweeping voltammetry.     

First-trimester screening for Down syndrome; the role of nasal bone assessment in the Korean population

Objectives The aim of this study was to evaluate the role of nasal bone assessment in first-trimester screening for Down syndrome (DS) in the Korean population. Methods From July 2004 to March 2006, we prospectively evaluated the fetal nasal bones at 11–14 weeks' gestation in the Korean population. Results A successful evaluation was possible in 6490 of 6787 fetuses (95.6%). Absent, hypoechoic, and short nasal bones were seen in 4 (26.7%), 4 (26.7%), and 1 (6.7%) of 15 fetuses with DS, respectively, whereas in 5 (0.1%), 11 (0.2%), and 246 (3.8%) of 6456 normal fetuses. The incidence of absent and hypoechoic nasal bone showed significant differences between normal fetuses and fetuses with DS (P < 0.0005, both). Screening for DS using an absent or hypoechoic nasal bone resulted in a sensitivity of 53.3%, a specificity of 99.8%, a positive likelihood ratio of 215.2, and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.5. Conclusion Our study showed that nasal bone abnormality at 11–14 weeks of gestation had a high association with DS in the Korean population. This suggests that nasal bone assessment can be used to supplement the current first-trimester screening for DS in the Korean population. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Trends in concentration of ground-level ozone and meteorological conditions during high ozone episodes in the Kao-Ping Airshed, Taiwan

This work analyzes the variations in daily maximum 1-hr ozone (O3) concentrations and the long-term trends in annual means of hourly ambient concentrations of O3, nitrogen oxides (nitrous oxide + nitrogen dioxide), and nonmethane hydrocarbons in the three administrative regions of Kao-Ping airshed in southern Taiwan over a recent 8-yr period. The annual or monthly means of all maxima, most 95th percentiles, and some 90th percentiles of the daily maximum 1-hr O3 concentrations exceed the daily limit of 120 parts per billion by volume in all three regions, namely, Kao-hsiung City, Kso-hsiung County, and P'ing-tung County. The monthly means of daily maximum 1-hr O3 concentrations exhibit distinct seasonal variations, with a bimodal form with the maxima in autumn and late winter to the middle of spring and a minimum in summer. The long-term variations in the annual means of hourly O3 concentrations in the three regions exhibit increasing trends. These increases in O3 are associated with the decline in ambient concentrations of nitrogen oxides and nonmethane hydrocarbons. High O3 episodes occur most often in autumn and most rarely in summer. The seasonal mean mixing heights in descending order follow the order of spring, summer, autumn, and winter. Meteorological parameters in autumn and winter indicate that the ground-level O3 tends to accumulate and trigger a high O3 episode on a warm day with sufficient sunlight and low wind in a high-pressure system, consistent with the low mixing heights in these two seasons.     

Selective removal of organic contaminants from sediments: a methodology for toxicity identification evaluations (TIEs)

Aqueous slurries of a test sediment spiked with dibenz[a,h]anthracene, 2,4,5,2',4',5'-hexachlorobiphenyl, p,p'-DDE, or phenanthrene were subjected to decontamination experimentation. The spiked sediments were agitated at elevated temperatures for at least 96 h in the presence of either of the two contaminant-absorbing media: clusters of polyethylene membrane or lipid-containing semipermeable membrane devices (SPMDs). The effects of treatment temperature and surface area of media on the removal of contaminants were explored. This work is part of a larger methodology for whole-sediment toxicity identification evaluation (TIE). A method is being sought that is capable of detoxifying sediments with respect to organic contaminants while leaving toxicity attributable to inorganic contaminants unaffected.     

Chemical and microbiological qualities of The East River (Dongjiang) water,with particular reference to drinking water supply in Hong Kong

Currently, about 80% of drinking water in Hong Kong is abstracted from The East River (Dongjiang) that is located in the mainland side of China. Literature records and monitoring results of 2000-2001 confirmed that the lower section of the Dongjiang had been contaminated by organic and inorganic pollutants. Statistical analyses showed that the increases of total cadmium, copper and zinc in the surface layer of sediment of Hong Kong reservoirs from 1994 to 2001 were positively correlated (significant at p<0.05) with those in the surface layer of sediments of the lower Dongjiang. Recent microbiological survey revealed that pathogens such as Salmonella spp., Vibro spp., Giardia lamblia and Cryptosporidium parvum appeared occasionally in water samples of the Dongjiang and Hong Kong reservoirs. While analytical results found that currently most of the heavy metals, trace organics and microbes were removed by the drinking water treatment plants in Hong Kong, the long-term health risk of drinking water contamination should not be overlooked. The Water Supplies Department of Hong Kong is recommended to intensify its water quality monitoring program to cover pathogenic bacteria and parasites in watercourses and reservoirs.     

Elevated levels of lead and other metals in roadside soil and grass and their use to monitor aerial metal depositions in Hong Kong

The Pb, Cu, Zn, Fe, Mn and Cd contents in roadside soils and grass from 36 sites on the Island of Hong Kong were determined by atomic absorption spectrometry. Results showed that both soil and grass contained elevated levels of the metals studied. Linear regression analysis between the logarithmic concentration of the metals in the samples and the logarithmic traffic volume of the sites revealed that, apart from Cd in soil, the two were strongly related (variance ratios' P values <0.001), thus indicating that the motor vehicle forms a major source of these metals in the roadside. The regional distribution of Pb and Cu in roadside soil and grass (presented in maps herein) shows high levels of contamination occurring mainly in the highly urbanised northern part of the Island where most of the traffic is concentrated. Apparently, both soil and grass could be utilised to reflect the extent of aerial deposition of metals in the roadside.     

马尾松种实病虫害防治研究

湖南马尾松种实害虫有七种,松梢小巷蛾和微红班螟是主要害虫。主要危害二年生球果,被害率高达46.49-47.76％。害虫天敌有三种。种实病害主要表现在一年生幼果大量脱落,落果率达33.35-36.12％。发病原因经室内病原茵诱发试验和分离培养,尚未获得致病茵,初步诊断为一种生理病害。病虫发生高峰期均在4-6月份,此时为防治关健时期。氧化乐果等防治马尾松种实害虫效果可达70％以上。无性乐间搞虫性略有差异。九二0生长激素和钼酸钠微肥防治生理落果有较明显防治效果。     

The impact on food security and future adaptation under climate variation: a case study of Taiwan’s agriculture and fisheries

According to Food and Agriculture Organization and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports, climate change will lead to a severe food-supply problem. In the future, food production will continually decrease because of aggravated effects of climate change, causing food production to continually decrease. Food production will be unable to satisfy the demand of the global population, leading to a food-security crisis. As the world population continues to increase, the shortage of food will become increasingly severe, particularly for those located in “climate impact hotspots” of tropical, subtropical, small-island countries, and countries that are dependent on imports to meet domestic demand such as Taiwan. Numerous Taiwanese studies have suggested that agricultural and fishery productivity has declined because of climate variation, which may cause changes and instability in food quantity and quality, and increase deficiency and uncertainty in the food supply. Therefore, to discuss the risks posed by climate change to the stability of food supply and demand, this paper, taking Taiwan as a case, explored the impact of climate variation on food security and future adaptation strategies. TaiCCAT’s supportive system for decision-making (TSSDA) was adopted here to assess and analyze the current situations of agricultural and fisheries production and supply, as well as future food supply risks, in addition to evaluating the deficiencies in the existing climate adaptation strategies in order to plan and revise feasible future adaptation alternatives. Based on the rule of risk management, the adaptation strategies recommended in this study were differentiated into two categories: proactive adaptation and planned adaptation. Proactive adaptation is emphasized to counter the uncertainty of food production, which increases the difficulty of production and necessity to import food. Conversely, planned adaptation can be used to manage the uncertainty of food supply to implement adjustments in production and marketing, as well as to mitigate the impact of climate variation.